Wave analysis of EUR / USD: past, present and future

In this article, a wave analysisEUR / USD. In addition to the facts themselves, the entire history of the euro, its origin and strengthening as a currency will be told. At the end of the article, we will try to predict the future of this currency pair.

The emergence of the euro-dollar currency pair

The emergence of the European Union and the refusal of a number of Europeancountries from their own currency in favor of the single currency of the euro, brought this currency into the leaders on demand. Some analysts even promised a pervasive transition in the calculations from the dollar to the euro. Naturally, this currency could not become the subject of currency trading on the Forex market.

Analysis of historical quotations of a currency pair

First, the wave analysis of the EUR / USD currency pair wasIt is impossible because there was not enough information. The price could only move macroeconomic factors (fundamental data), as well as purely market methods of market makers. Over time, when some history of quotations was already created, the wave analysis of EUR / USD became possible on relatively small timeframes.

Since the "Forex" as such existed since 1976year, although its modern appearance is significantly different, quotes in the trading terminals at the beginning of its history reflect the relationship between the US dollar and the currency of the ECU. It was the first pan-European currency.

By the time the cash was introduced, the euro had practicallythe minimum cost. The value of the dollar, on the contrary, grew. Graphic analysis on large timeframes showed a figure of uncertainty - "wedge". Although more often this figure is a figure of continuation of the trend, the fundamental and wave analysis of EUR / USD suggested the proximity of the trend change.

As often happens, the beginning of a true trendbegins with a false movement. With the introduction of the euro in circulation, its stock quotes fell slightly, but after a month the price stabilized, and a gradual increase began. The historical minimum was not updated, and the price was at the bottom of the market. The volume of trading on the local minimum was significantly reduced. The ICA system suggested that further fall is unlikely.

The EUR / USD wave analysis pointed to the completionfirst eight-wave phase. It was possible to postpone the Fibonacci extension lines, and the subsequent history confirmed some key points in the development of the movement: there were significant delays in the form of resistance in the area of ​​162, 262%, and also a blubber around the level of 424%.

The full impulse wave No. 2 had more progress than 500% in relation to the first one, and its correction worked very accurately at 62%.

The development of the third impulse wave was difficultto forecast at certain price levels, as further progress updated historical highs. However, if you apply the basic definitions of wave analysis, you can clearly notice the correction zones that did not touch the previous highs, and they clearly worked the Fibonacci lines 62 and 162%, if you take the previous correction as 100%. The overall progress of the third sub-wave corresponded to 200% of the previous correction.

Current developments

Following such a significant growthThe euro global crisis has led to significant fluctuations against the dollar. If we apply the basic rules for constructing waves, we can say that the first wave of incidence was a little more than 50% of the previous growth (if we analyze the weekly chart), and its correction was almost 76% of the first impulse.

It is possible with a high probabilityto say that now we are at the exit from the second correction, that is, the third impulse wave is being formed. The first correction was in the shape of a zigzag, the second is the complex structure of a horizontal flat.

Forecast of events

Wave analysis of EUR / USD allows you to dosome forecasts in the medium term. If the value of the first impulse is taken as 100%, then the second impulse will end, most likely in the region of the level of 162%. This level corresponds to the price of 0.9300. Since this price is close to the historical minimum, the third impulse wave will have a complex structure and may not update the minimum of the second impulse wave (truncated wave) or lower it only slightly.